Wednesday, 17 March 2010

Likelihood of extra planets in systems identified by Kepler?

There are many planets that Kepler couldn't detect because the ecliptic is inclined so no transit occurs from the perspective of Earth. We are much more likely to see a transit if the transiting planet is close to the star, and so in Kepler's sample of stars, a disproportionate number of the planets discovered orbit very close to the star. It is probable that most stars have planets, and many of those planets orbit much further out than the average in the Kepler sample. And, moreover, the stars which have been found to have planets are likely to have others, orbiting further from the sun, and inclined, so they are not detectable by transits. Kepler has not detected Earth size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of sun-like stars.



So far we do not have the technology to detect a planetary system that mirrors the Solar System. Our alien friends, if they are very close to the ecliptic may detect transits of Earth but would likely miss the other planets. And there is no reason to suspect that the Solar system is not typical in the range of inclination of its planets.

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