Friday 27 October 2006

pr.probability - Google question: In a country in which people only want boys

I think this is already implicit in the heavily up-voted answer, but it may be worth clarifying: there are two kinds of expectations that we can talk about.



The first is the distribution of G/B, G/(G + B), B/G, B/(B + G), values for the entire population (along with its expected value, standard deviation, etc.). Here, the distribution is over all possible "runs of history", so to speak, in the sense that we average over all possible ways history could turn out. If the population is large enough (thousands? millions?), then the expected values of all these quantities are what you would expect from a 50:50 split, and the standard deviations are near zero. Thus, as far as demographic estimations of the overall population are concerned, 50:50 is the way to go. In fact, at the population level, the ratio of girls to boys cannot be influenced by stopping strategies; any influence must either (i) affect the relative probability of conception of male versus female fetus (ii) adopt a post-conception filtering mechanism, such as induced abortion or infanticide).



The second is the expected G/B, G/(G + B), B/G, B/(B + G), etc., values over families. More generally, we may be interested in the distribution of different (G,B) values for different families. If we are interested in understanding family dynamics more thoroughly, we may also be interested in the birth orders, i.e., in what order girls and boys arise. Here, family stopping strategies could affect the distribution of (G,B) values and also of the birth orders. In particular, the strategy here ("stop as soon as you have a boy") gives 50% of the families with a single boy, 25% with one (older) girl and one (younger) boy, 12.5% with two older girls and one younger boy, and so on (assuming the complication of twins and triplets does not arise). This could have important demographic implications in the long term, when mating is done for the next generation (since birth order and the age gaps between children and their parents all play a role in mating and the creation of chlidren). However, that is getting beyond the current question.



For this second sense, it is not just the expected value per family that matters, but rather, the specific distribution of families. As already pointed out, since the variables are not independent, E[G/B] is not the same thing as E[G]/E[B], so what variable we choose to average over affects what answer we get. Looking at the whole distribution conveys more information.



When demographers are making short-term population estimates, it is the first sense (expected values for the population over runs of history) that is relevant, so stopping strategies can be discounted unless they are accompanied by post-conception selective strategies or strategies that affect conception probabilities. A deeper understanding of society would require knowing things in both the first and the second sense.

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