I've thought about that too. It's not explicitly explained how time travel works except for how Old Joe explained how his memories change and were a "sea of probabilities" until Young Joe formed new ones.
My thoughts are it's the infinite worlds hypothesis, there are an infinite number of realities, maybe old Joe only had a 5% chance of overwhelming his captors and removing the hood, giving Young Joe a split second's hesitation so he can avoid having his loop closed. We're only shown two different "loops" in the movie.
If you're looking for the "trigger" my idea is that the phone call that gives him the "Rainmaker"'s number is the trigger. Now he has something to look for in the past, and a slim hope of avoiding his fate…
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